Ed's Double Street Roulette Strategy
This Roulette strategy plays a combination of dozen and double street (6 numbers) bets. I recommend that one pursue this strategy only if you have at least 1000 units as your session bankroll, and at least 2000 units in your total bankroll. By session bankroll I mean what you take to the casino, and by total bankroll I mean all the money that you have set aside for gambling purposes.
1 unit can be anything from 25 cents to $100 chips. It all depends on which casino you are playing in (yes, some offer 25 cent chips) and how much money you can afford to gamble. My suggestion is that this strategy be played with 1 unit = $5, which would require a total bankroll of at least $10,000 and a session bankroll of at least $5,000.
The first step is to chart the table results. Be sure to ask the dealer or other players if the lightboard showing results is working. Unless they make a point to say "no," I think it is generally safe to assume that it is. An error at this point is not going to be too problematic, and after you record these initial spins you will have your own record.
Remember that you record the results two ways. The first is to have a grid that lists the numbers by streets. I draw a heavier line between each set of double streets to create 6 betting zones (1-6, 7-12, 13-18, 19-24, 25-30, 31-36). A sample is listed below.
On your second page, simply list all the number that hit, marking a line after every 7th number so you can cross check between the two lists to make sure you don't miss recording a number. That is, simply count up your hash marks on the grid on your first page to make sure you get 7 hashmarks for each set that you also record on your second page.
Your top page should look something like this:
Note that this grid allows you to track, in one glance, both the results by street as well as by double street. A "set" is defined as 7 spins, since each double street should hit every 6.33 spins. Put a hash mark next to each street that hits in the first 7 spins. Now, if an entire double street goes 7 spins without a hit, then mark a "0" that crosses over the dotted line so that it is very obvious to you, visually, that that double street went hitless.
If you have a doublet street in which one street hits and the other does not, then put a hash mark in the street that hits, and record a dash "-" for the street that does not. So after 7 spins you should have something that looks like this:
You can make the "0" larger, of course. On your second page, you should be simply listing the numbers that hit, then draw a horizontal line after each seventh number. So:
Each time you draw a line, go back and count your hashmarks on page 1 to make sure you have 7 of them. If you have more or less than 7, then you have goofed up your record someplace and you need to figure out what you have left out from which list.
Assuming all is well, you can get ready to bet. Now in this example you have two double streets (7-12, 31-36) that did not get any hits.
On page 1 of your notes draw a vertical line to start a new column of hash marks, dashes, and 0s.
When you have a hit in one of the double streets that has hit in the first column, you do nothing other than record the hit with a hash mark. It does not matter (at this point) which street within the double street hit.
If you have a hit in a double street that has a 0 marked (in this case, 7-12 or 31-36), then you can start betting for the repeat. For this example, let's say the number 11 hits, so your "target double street" is 7-12.
The basic stage 1 progression is 14 spins. I am going to describe the most conservative progression you can follow. I strongly recommend that you stick to it for now. You will develop your own variations with experience.
As mentioned before, 1 unit can be any amount, depending on your bankroll. I suggest with a bankroll of $5000 you begin with $5 chips as 1 unit, though I anticipate you will be able to increase this with experience.
You start by betting not just on the double street but on the dozen in which the double street resides. You are doing this for one reason and one reason only: to get quick and easy hits. This will increase your probability of success substantially. True, you will make profit more slowly than you would ideally like, but particularly to start with I think it is the smart move.
As I said, you can increase the size of your units as your experience and bankroll increases.
The first 7 bets are on the DOZEN in which the double street resides. In this example you would be betting on the first dozen: 1-12. Keep in mind that you are going for one hit, that is all. The progression is as follows:
spin 1 1 unit
spin 2 1 unit
spin 3 2 units
spin 4 3 units
spin 5 4 units
spin 6 6 units
spin 7 9 units
You will have a hit within these 7 spins about 93% of the time. That hit might come from the targeted double street, or it may come from the other double street. It does not matter. In any case, you stop after one hit. You will make 1 or 2 units only per hit, but that's OK. Slow and steady wins the race.
What if you do not have a hit yet? After these 7 spins you will no longer pursue the whole dozen, but instead bet only on the originally targeted double street. In this example, as you recall, the number 11 hit so your targeted double street is 7-12. You have just bet on the whole first dozen (1-12) for 7 spins. If you do not get a hit then you now concentrate only on the targeted double street of 7-12. You are going to bet for 7 more spins with the following progression:
spin 8 6 units
spin 9 7 units
spin 10 8 units
spin 11 10 units
spin 12 12 units
spin 13 14 units
spin 14 17 units
Notice that you start this betting sequence with smaller bets than you ended the first 7 spins with. That is because you have moved from the dozens, which pay 2 for 1, to the double street, which pays 5 for 1.
If you get a hit, your profit may be as little as 1 or as many as 4 units, depending on where in the progression you get your hit.
The cumulative odds of success of getting one hit within these first 14 spins is 98%. So that vast majority of the time you will end a betting sequence within this "stage one" strategy.
A word about bankroll. To complete this progression requires exactly 100 units. If you are betting $1 units (on a video roulette machine, for example, where they allow $1 outside bets), then you obviously need $100. $5 units = $500. $10 units = $1000. $25 units = $2500.
There just is no way of getting around the unpleasant fact that one has to put at risk a great deal more money than one expects to win in any one betting sequence. In this case you are committing to risking 100 units in hopes of winning somewhere between 1 and 4 units. That may feel uncomfortable, which is why you want a large total bankroll. It is also why patience and persistence are THE keys to success. You have to be willing to grind out your profit a bit at a time.
The probability of success for this strategy is so high (98%) that in a given session you may never need to move to Stage Two. However, the longer you play roulette the greater the odds that you are eventually going to hit one of those 2% where you do not get a hit within 14 spins. In that case, it is time to move to Stage Two strategies.
There are several situations that I need to describe within the context of Stage One before moving on. Let us say that you are on spin 5 of your betting progression with your targeted double street of 7-12 and the number 34 comes up. That number is in your other potential targeted double street, 31-36. What do you do?
You have three options. If you are short on bankroll and can only afford to chase one of the two options, then I suggest you go after the double street that has been asleep the longest. In this case that means switching from the 7-12 double street and moving to 31-36 instead. This is the least desirable option and I recommend it only if you are short stacked.
The next most conservative option is to go after both targeted double streets, but treat them "independently." That is, simply follow the progression described above for each of the two-double street/dozens involved. If you pursue this option, realize that you will need both of the targets to hit in order to come out ahead. So don't be alarmed if one of them hits and you are still down. That is to be expected.
Notice, of course, that this can get expensive. That is why I keep stressing the incredible importance of a deep bankroll. To pursue both targets you will have to have 200 units ready to go. The good news is that you WILL win one of the two series fairly quickly which will allow you to concentrate on only one. Why? Because you are going to be covering a large amount of the board and the wheel cannot hide from you for long. For example, if the 11 hit and then 34 hit the very next spin, you would be starting the progressions at the same time, covering both the first and the third dozen.
The only loss is 0/00 and the middle dozen. The odds of 14 spins in a row landing only in the middle dozen and on 0/00 are fantastically small. (Of course if you are getting weird results then I always recommend a side bet on the 0/00).
Now if you start to get deep into the progressions and you are getting nervous about how much money you have out there, then don't sweat it. Just cut back to one of the bets, but increase the amount you have so you come out even or ahead for the sequence. Of course, if you have a large enough bankroll you should not be nervous at all.
The most aggressive (and expensive) option is to "marry" the two bets. What that means is that you are treating them as interrelated parts of the "same" bet, and you progress steeply enough that you only need ONE of the bets to hit to come out ahead. The exact progression cannot be mapped out in advance because there are too many permutations, since I cannot predict how far you will be in one progression when the other one may start. So you will have to roughly calculate it on the spot. It is not difficult to do this if you have your chips stacked neatly and you know exactly how much you have. There is a simple rule of thumb: If you are chasing two series, you will have to progress twice as fast. Be careful! This is the costliest approach and I recommend it ONLY if you feel confident about your bet (for example, if both targeted double streets have been asleep for a long time).
Now, in my example thus far I am talking about a data set that has only two potential double streets. What happens if you have more than that--perhaps 3 or 4 that do not hit within a set of 7, and then they all start hitting in the next set of spins? What do you do?
This is where experience comes into the picture. The options are the same as I just described. You can concentrate on just one, bet on all of them but treat the progressions as "independent," or you can "marry" the whole bunch and progress them collectively (like "chasing bunches of streets" in the book describes).
What do I do? Well, I start by marrying the whole bunch and progressing steeply for 4 spins. If I don't have a hit by then, I "divorce" the targeted double streets and concentrate on those that I believe are the best bets.
What are the best bets? Those double streets that have hit the least, and have been asleep the longest prior to this hit.
Now, it can get messy in the sense that there are an infinite variety of situations that could develop. You might have a set of 7 spins where every single double street hit once, then the next set of 7 spins only 2 do, leaving you 4 potential targets. They might all hit at once or they might come out staggered so that it becomes difficult to keep track of all your progressions. Don't Panic! Just do two things:
First, whenever you decide to bet on a targeted double street, circle the number that hit on page 2 of your notes. When it hits, draw a line through it. That way you can always tell with a glance at your second page which double streets you have targeted.
Second, memorize the three options described above. Think of them as "Drop back and punt" (that is, concentrate on only one target that is your best bet), "Independence Day" (pursue each target but treat each betting series independently), or "Marriage" where you marry all the bets and progress them collectively so you only need one hit.
This is the sort of thing I have meant when talking about the importance of experience. The basic strategy for Stage 1 that I have described is quite simple to memorize (or have tapped into your notepad for easy reference). It is adapting the basic strategy to all the different situations that arise that takes practice.
I do want to talk about one particular situation that could develop. You might have two double streets within the same dozen that go without a hit for 7 spins. Let's say 1-6 and 7-12 are both marked with a "0" after a set of 7 spins. Then 4 hits. You then start betting on the whole first dozen. Then the 8 hits. What do you do? With experience you will create your own heuristics, but my recommendation is to consider yourself done. You got your hit, so consider the sequence over and done with. If you are ahead for the day and want to go for a second hit, fine. My suggestion is to try for no more than 4 spins and stop. What you do not want to have happen is to get sucked into a big obligation of 100 units and all of a sudden find yourself forced into a Stage Two comeback situation.
Very Important Note: Once you have been at the table a while, you have acquired a very valuable set of data that gives you a "history" for the double streets that you should consider before going after a particular bet aggressively. By "history" I mean what has been happening to that double street prior to it becoming a candidate for a betting series. Has that double street overall been hitting more or less than average? This is easy to see on your grid. On average each double street should hit once every 6.3 spins. That means in each set of 7 spins each street will hit on average once (or slightly less). Look at how many columns you have at this point on your first page. If you have 8 columns representing 8 sets of 7 spins, then each double street should have hit about 8 times. If a double street has hit less than that, then it is hitting below average frequency and represents a good betting opportunity because it is "due." If, however, it has hit more or even a lot more than 8 times, then it is not particularly due and is a less attractive betting opportunity. So even if a double street has been asleep for more than 7 spins, if it hit a lot in the previous sets, then it is not a particularly good betting opportunity. The fact that it has gone to sleep now may simply be a matter of it averaging out the fact that it hit more than average earlier. So I would hesitate to go after it aggressively.
In fact, I might bet only lightly on it (4 spins) and instead simply wait for a different betting opportunity elsewhere on the board.
Before moving to Stage Two, one last word of warning. It is not the case that if you have a loss with Stage One with one double street that you don't have to worry about another double street turning sour at the same time. It could happen. Bad things often happen in clusters, so don't think because you had one losing sequence with Stage One that you are safe on your other bets and start increasing your bet size. Stick to the conservative progression with each independent betting sequence.
If you have reached Stage Two, then you are already down 100 units. The First Step is Don't Panic. You still have 900 units with which to make a comeback. Actually, if you have been playing for a while you may have more than 900 units and have lost part of your profit and only part of your original bankroll.
The second step is to set a goal and then devise a strategy with which to pursue that goal. By "goal" I mean ask yourself how much you want to make and how fast. You might even decide that you don't want to take a risk with the Stage Two strategies; instead you would prefer simply to "eat" the 100-unit loss and move on. Or, you might want to make back ALL of the loss with only one hit. If you don't want to play that aggressively, you could set the goal of making back your loss with 2 or 3 hits. It does not really matter to me. This depends on your comfort level with risk, and the depth of your bankroll.
The one exception you might want to consider if the loss occurred because of a player error. For example, if you bet too much, too fast and did not stick to the progression, or if you forgot to place a bet that would have won. You need to clear your head here and not get angry at yourself. Just ask yourself if the playing conditions and available bankroll make you feel comfortable going after a comeback. If not, then walk away, take a break, and start fresh later.
For the purpose of describing Stage Two strategies, I will make two assumptions. First, I assume that you did not lose because of a player error, but instead lost simply because you hit one of those unfortunate 2% sequences where your targeted double street did not hit within 14 spins. This, as we will see, is a very, very important assumption for deciding which strategy to pursue.
Second, I will assume that you want to "go for it"; that is, that you want to win back the 100 units with one hit, and that you are willing to risk most or all of your remaining 900 units to do that. Obviously this does not have to be the case. You can always stop if you feel discouraged or if the playing conditions becomes a problem. The key is that if you play roulette at all, you must play well with a good attitude or you will mess up.
OK, so what can we do to make back that 100 units? I am going to describe 4 different Stage Two strategies. Read through all of them carefully. It may be that you will decide that the best one for you is the last one, "Moving Up in Chip Size." It is by far the simplest because you stick with the Stage One strategy, just at a higher level. I will describe other options as well, but if it all seems too complicated, then strongly consider the fourth and final Stage Two strategy.
Determining Your Best Betting Opportunity
The Basic Theory for comeback strategies is as follows: Whenever you are in a comeback situation, you want to look over your grid of hits (page 1 of your notes) to determine what your very best betting opportunity is.
Normally your best comeback betting opportunity will be to bet again on the exact same double street that you just had a loss with. However, this will not always be the case. You might have a double street that has not yet hit and that may provide an even better opportunity. For example, let's say that you go after the 1-6 double street that initially only went 8 or 9 spins without a hit. So, you do the Stage One betting sequence and lose, but the double street wakes up on the 16th spin. Meanwhile, a different double street (31-36) has now gone 30 spins or so without a hit. In that situation, I personally would use my stage two strategies to go after the 31-36 street, because it has gone several standard deviations past the mean average. I'd still bet on that 1-6 street after it woke up, but I probably would not chase it for very long or very heavily. Instead I would concentrate on the better bet with 31-36.
Or, as another example, perhaps you have been at the table for quite a while and you notice that within one of the double streets, there is one single-street in particular (say 34/35/36) that has not hit in a really long time, say 50 spins. In that case, I would still bet 4 times on the double street where I had the loss (strategy #1 described below), but I would also look to this single-street as an ideal place for a good comeback bet.
I hope you get the theory here. As you sit at the table, you are accumulating very valuable data. When you find yourself suffering a Stage One loss, you should not just mechanically pursue that same bet. Instead you need to look at the overall set of data to determine what your very best bet would be.
Now, you may be asking how do you compare, for example, a double street that has gone 15 spins before hitting with a single-street that has gone 46 spins? This is very easy to calculate and, just as importantly, with practice you don't need to do any calculations at all - you will just be able to look at your grid and "see" which is better.
Technically, the "best bet" is to bet on the repeat on the "most overdue" bet. Your grid is set up perfectly to see this. The mean frequency for a pair is 19 (though I just round this up to 20), for a street, 13, for a double street, 7 (rounding up from 6.33). One standard deviation for these different frequencies is pretty much equal to the mean. So, a street that has gone 26 spins without hitting is the mean plus one standard deviation.
If it has gone 39 spins that is 2 standard deviations beyond the mean. Etc. The same is easy to see for double streets. The mean is 7. So, a double street that has gone 28 spins is 3 standard deviations over the mean (7 + 3x7). So, the better bet in this case is to go for the double street because it is more overdue, in the sense that it has gone further past its expected mean than the single street.
This may seem like too much math, but it isn't once you get used to thinking and playing this way. Just burn into your brain those three key numbers.
For pairs the magic number is 20, for a single street it is 13, for a double street it is 7. Those are the mean averages as well as the unit of a standard deviation. Once you have played a few hours with these strategies, these numbers will become second nature to you. You will develop the habit of thinking of a pair, street, or double street going 2, 3, 4 or whatever standard deviations beyond their mean.
Having a visual grid will help you a great deal. It is very simple. Let's talk about double streets for a moment. If you have a "0" marked in a column then you instantly know that this double street has not hit in at least 7 spins (the mean average frequency). If there are two 0s in a row, then you instantly know that it has gone at least 14 spins (mean + 1 standard deviation). Three 0s = at least 21 spins (mean + 2 standard deviations).
You don't have to do any complicated math. You just look and see that your different double street options have X many 0s and that tells you which one is the very best bet.
Tracking the single-streets is also easy. Recall that if one single street hits within a double street but the other one does not, you record a hash mark next to the street that hits, and a dash next to the one that does not. If you go back to the sample grid above, note that the 1/2/3 street hit (so it has a hash mark) but the 4/5/6 did not (so it has a dash). You know that each dash or 0 means that a particular single-street has not hit in that set of 7 spins. This means in addition to tracking double streets, you are also tracking single streets and you can see with a glance if there is a single street that has gone a long time without a hit. If you have a single street that has all dashes and 0s for 6 sets, then it has not had a hit in at least 42 spins. That is a bit over the mean plus 2 standard deviations.
So, just by looking at your grid, you can compare your best bets, and without doing any complicated math you can determine what your best bet is. A single street that is 3 standard deviations above the mean is obviously a much better bet than a double street that is just at the mean or only 1 standard deviation past the mean. So, once you get into the habit of looking at the grid and thinking of those 0s and dashes as indicating standard deviation units, it is an easy matter to "see" what the best betting opportunity is.
In some cases, you may want to make a comeback but the best possible betting opportunity is not ready for betting yet. Maybe you have a different double street or single-street that is 4 standard deviations beyond the mean and still has not hit yet. In that case, while I would go ahead and bet on the losing double street 4 times (see below) if it wakes up, I would be cautious and not move beyond those bets. Instead I would wait for the better sleeper to finally wake up and be ready to bet heavy on it once it does.
Now, given the data you have, one of the following strategies will be your best bet for making a comeback. I will go through them individually, but always keep in mind that you do not just chase where you lost automatically.
Instead you are always assessing what your best betting opportunity is.
Comeback strategy #1: Return to the Double Street
Most of the time, this is the best strategy to follow if the double street you just lost on is way overdue when it finally wakes up. I might hesitate just a bit if it hits on the 15th or 16th spin and I missed it only 1 or 2 spins.
I'd still chase it but I would factor in the fact that it was not horribly overdue in planning the next step or how much to risk. If a double street is going to go to sleep and lose you that 100 units, then frankly you want the darn thing then to stay asleep for as long as possible so that it is WAY over the mean (by several standard deviations), and thus is due for a fast repeat once it finally wakes up.
Before you pursue this strategy, you need to look at the long-term history of the double street. Recall that what I mean by "history" is what has been happening to that double street before you had your losing sequence. Has that double street overall been hitting more or less than average? This is easy to see on your grid. On average each double street should hit once every 6.3 spins. That means in each set of 7 spins each street will hit on average once (or slightly less). Look at how many columns you have at this point on your first page. If you have 8 columns representing 8 sets of 7 spins, then each double street should have hit about 8 times. If a double street has hit less than that, then it is hitting below average frequency and represents a good betting opportunity because it is "due." If, however, it has hit more or even a lot more than 8 times, then it is not particularly due and is a less attractive betting opportunity. In fact, you should not have lost 100 units chasing a double street that has been already hitting more than average.
If you did, you certainly should think twice about compounding your mistake by chasing it again now.
Assuming you lost on a double street that has been hitting an average or less than average amount, then there is a bit of good news at hand. Assuming you bet on a double street that had not hit for over 7 spins before waking up, then that double street has already defied the odds since double streets on average hit within 7 spins about 70% of the time. So you have encountered a series that is only 30% probable.
The sequence that just beat you can be described technically as a "statistically anomalous sequence" because it happens so rarely (about 2% of the time). So you have just seen two improbable series back to back. The first one was only 30% probable, the second was only 2% probable. Those will happen rarely. The good news is that the odds of three consecutive anomalous sequences happening are exceedingly rare. That is what I mean by "due to repeat." The diehard stats person will say that it is never "due" or "overdue" because the odds are always the same. Well, that is one way to describe the situation. But from my standpoint the repeat is "due" in the perfectly valid statistical sense that the odds of three consecutive sequences in which it does not repeat is remote.
Accordingly, most of the time your best shot at a fast comeback is to wait for the sleeping double street (which has now gone 14+ spins without a hit) to "wake up." You will then bet on it to repeat.
You are only going to bet on the double street for 4 spins. That gets you to about 50% probability, but more importantly it puts you over the median average. The median is not the same as the mean average. The median is the true midpoint of any set of data at which point one-half of the data points are on either side. Let me give you a different example to explain the importance of the median, only I want to talk about pairs for a minute. On a standard American wheel there are 19 pairs. So in the long run the mean average frequency for each pair will be to hit once every 19 spins. For reasons too complicated to explain here, most of the time it actually hits sooner than that. The mean average stays at 19 because numerically a single really long wait (say 80 or 90 spins) impacts the average the same as a whole bunch of little streaks. In statistical terms we would describe the data set of a given pair over a long set of spins (say 100,000) to be heavily skewed by the long waits. It is like having a billionaire living in a neighborhood of middle income people. The mean average income in the neighborhood will appear much wealthier than it really is--all because of the one extreme data point of the billionaire.
Accordingly, the median average (found midway through all the data scores), where 50% of the streaks are on each side, is a more reliable indicator for betting strategies. In the case of pairs, the median is about 13. So fully one half of the time a pair will hit within 13, not 19, spins.
Similarly, with double streets the mean average frequency in the long run will be one hit every 6.3 spins (on a double zero table). But the median is about 4, so 4 spins is all we want to chase.
The progression would be:
spin 1 = 21 units
spin 2 = 25 units
spin 3 = 30 units
spin 4 = 36 units (112 units, total so far of 212 units)
Your probability for success within the 4 spins is technically only about 50%. But combined with the earlier bets, your cumulative chance of success so far is 99%. Not bad. So, I hope that you never have to go any farther than this first comeback strategy.
What if you lose? You need to set your goal again. You are now down 212 units. Do you feel like risking more, or do you feel better about quitting at this point and starting fresh later? Mental attitude is important.
Feeling desperate is a good way to make mistakes. If you find yourself getting upset, you need to take a deep breath and assess your situation logically.
In particular, you need to assess what your "Best Betting Opportunity" is.
It may be to continue to chase this part of the board, or it may be to back off that area and look to other parts that are developing into better opportunities (as I described above). If none of those options seems worthwhile, perhaps because things are hitting just after you stop betting on them so they are not all that much past the mean frequency plus one standard deviation, then you need to seriously consider not pursuing the more expensive comeback strategies. Instead consider the last strategy I describe below, "Moving Up in Chip Size."
Let us assume for the moment that you determine that your best betting opportunity is to pursue the same sector. But you don't want to go past the 36 units you just lost (which is $180 if playing with $5 chips). In that case, I suggest the following strategy.
Comeback strategy #2: Narrow your focus to a single street
So, the bad news is that you are now down 212 units. Again, assuming you want to win it all back at once, and that the loss was not due to player error, your best strategy at this point may be to focus on one of the streets within the double street you have been betting on.
The logic is the same as before: The odds of yet another losing sequence are increasingly remote. The reason to concentrate one street is simple economics: you can make your money back with risking less than if you pursued the double street.
Let me remind you that you need to look at the long-term history of the street. What you want to do is to concentrate on the single-street within your double street that is the best betting opportunity (defined above).
This may mean that you continue to bet after the 4 bets above on the double street, but instead you now are betting only on one of the streets. Or it may mean that you decide to wait for one of the streets to "wake up" before betting on it. Again, pick the street that is most overdue, as defined above.
You then bet on that single-street for 8 spins with the following progression:
spin 1 = 20 units
spin 2 = 22 units
spin 3 = 24 units
spin 4 = 26 units
spin 5 = 28 units
spin 6 = 31 units
spin 7 = 34 units
spin 8 = 37 units (222 units, total so far of 434 units)
Your cumulative chance of success now is 99.5%. That is about as high as you can get, particularly with a finite bankroll. One bit of good news is that your profit at this point will typically be 8 to 10 units, rather than just one or two. So if you have a good betting opportunity at this point in the Stage Two strategies, you can not only cover your loss but make a decent little profit besides.
Now what if you lose? Well, at this point you are probably pretty bummed out because you are down 434 units, or nearly half of your 1000-unit bankroll. Once again it is time to take a very deep breath, check your mental health, and ascertain your best course of action.
If you are freaking out, then you should quit and go take a break. If you look at your grid and you see no particularly good betting opportunities for attempting another comeback effort, you should quit and go take a break. Leave the table and go clear your head.
Let's say though that you are not freaked out and you feel you can make a comeback. What should you do? I will describe two last strategies, but before I do, let me mention the possibility of continuing to chase the street you were just betting on. If you do so, I want to strongly urge two things.
First, do not get your bet above 40 units. It is too traumatic to lose large bets to let yourself get above that. Second, do not chase it any more than another 4 spins. Those 4 spins can be placed right after the 8 you just made. Or, you could wait and see if the street stays asleep for a long time and finally wakes up, then you could chase it again but only for 4 spins.
Either way that is another 160 units, and if you lose that you still want to have something left for your last-ditch effort. It is simply not worth the risk of your total bankroll to chase a street that just won't cooperate.
Comeback Strategy #3: Pick Your Best Pair
I really hope you never find yourself in a hole this deep that you are looking for a fast way to make up 400+ units. If you do, your best bet is going to be to look for a sleeper pair to bet on as described in Roulette 2000. Go to the chapter on "Inside Situational Bets" and reread the sections on "Chasing Zeros" (Version A) and "Chasing the Sleeper Pair."
Because you get back 18 to 1, a bet on a pair is a powerful comeback strategy. A $100 bet gets you (with your bet returned) $1800. Even if you are down a total of 434 units, you still have 566 units to play with. If you stick to 20 unit bets, that leaves you with 28 more bets. If you go to 25 unit bets, you have 22. If you stick to 4 bet sequences such as I describe below, you will have between 5 and 7 more chances to start making back your losses.
Your "Best Pair" may be at the table you have been playing. That is the advantage of taking notes and recording numbers. Take a look at streets that have hit very little since you have been there. Is there a pair within that street that has not hit? Has that pair gone at least 50 spins without a hit?
If so, that may be your best bet. Frankly I would not try this strategy unless you have a pair that has gone at least 50 spins. If you have such a pair, I would wait for it to wake up, then bet 4 spins at 20 units. Never ever chase a pair that is still asleep. Let is sleep. The longer the better. Wait for it to wake up, then go after it 4 spins. If you have a pair (or perhaps several pairs) that are close to 50 but not there (let's say they are in the 40s), then go 4 to 8 spins at a lower bet such as 10 units.
If you have no pairs that look promising at your table, then leave. Go to another table and start back with the Stage One strategy. If and when you find a really great betting opportunity (such as a pair over 50 or a street/double street that is 3 standard deviations past the mean), then feel free to go after it. Again, the magic number of bets is 4 spins. That typically is enough for something that is way overdue. Obviously you could go longer than that, but in my experience 4 spins is a good cutoff point.
One thing I always keep an eye out for is a table that has not had a zero or double zero for a long time. This is easy to track because the green color really stands out on the lightboards. So, no matter what I may be doing at the table I am playing, I am also looking around the area and noticing if there are any tables out there that have not had any green (0/00) for a long time. This strategy applies only to American (0/00) wheels, of course, not the European single zero wheel.
So, as you play, develop the habit of checking the tables around you. You have enough down time between spins that you can get out of your chair and walk a few steps to look at lightboards at other tables if you need to. No matter how you do it, you definitely need to cultivate the habit of checking the status of zeros at all the area tables wherever you are playing.
If you have identified a table on which the zeros have gone to sleep for a good long time (at least an hour), I would go hang out near the table and wait for the green to wake up. When it did, I would place a series of four 20 unit bets. 20 units x 18 = 360 units, which is not everything you lose but it is close enough that you can relax.
If you are playing at a casino with a number of tables, there may very well be more than one that offers a good opportunity for this bet. In that case, chase for 4 spins and if you lose, go to the next table and do the same thing. If you only have one shot at it, then you can go for 8 spins. If this seems too pricey for you, then shift down to 10 units. That would still get you back 180 units and it would take only 2 or 3 hits (at different tables) to get you back in business.
If you have 25 total bets chasing pairs, then your cumulative chance of success is now at 99.9%.
Comeback Strategy #4: Moving Up in Chip Size
The problem with the above strategies is that you can get wiped out of resources fairly fast if things turn sour. So you should always consider the possibility of simply stopping after a loss and going back to the Stage One strategy and making up your loss slowly but surely. There is a way of splitting the difference between accepting the loss without a fight, and playing the first three of the comeback strategies I have described here. That is to move up in chip size, but stick with the Stage One combination dozen/double street strategy.
If you have been playing with $1 chips, this means moving to $5 chips. If you have been playing with $5 chips, this means either changing in your head your unit size to $10 (two $5 chips), or actually going up to $25 chips.
The idea here is that the Stage One strategy is basically very sound and gets you to 98% probability of success. Rather than take risks with steep progressions, just stick to the way you have been playing but play with larger chips only until you have made up your loss.
Let's assume you move up a chip size 5 times your previous chip size (from $1 to $5, or $5 to $25). Your goal is to make up the 100 units you lost previously. But your new units are 5 times as large as your old one, so you only need to win 20 units at this higher level of play. Depending on when you get your hits, it will take you somewhere around 10 hits to make up your loss. That is not bad.
There is only a 2% chance of a loss doing this. Even if you have such a loss, you will be down a total of 600 units, which leaves you 400 units to potentially use as part of a further comeback effort. Accordingly, I consider this strategy to be a very reasonable option, particularly in a casino playing at a LIVE table rather than video roulette. With video roulette it is quite easy to alter the size of your bets. You don't have to count out chips, you just push a button until you have the right amount out there. But in live roulette you have to pay with chips, so this approach is the easiest and if you lose you still have money to try the other comeback strategies.
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You can never reach 100% in this game, so the chance of you getting totally wiped out is pretty small. But it is possible. That is why I recommend that one pursue these strategies only if you have at least 1000 units as your session bankroll, and at least 2000 units in your total bankroll. That way even if you get wiped out, you can live to play another day.
One last word about practice. I strongly recommend that you purchase a casino simulation software program that includes roulette. These are relatively cheap and available in any software store. I use one made by "Centron". There are also free roulette software simulators available online. Get one of these and practice, practice, practice with these strategies so that you develop the habits and skills you need at the casino, such as accurate note-taking, calculating & placing your bets, and practicing the comeback strategies without the pressure of real money being on the line.
I practice at home literally every day, and I give credit to this practice to whatever success I have in the casino. That is about it. For ease of reference I list the betting progressions again on the next page. I suggest you copy this and carry it with you for ease of reference.
Betting on the Dozen
spin 1 1 unit
spin 2 1 unit
spin 3 2 units
spin 4 3 units
spin 5 4 units
spin 6 6 units
spin 7 9 units
Betting on the Targeted Double Street
spin 8 6 units
spin 9 7 units
spin 10 8 units
spin 11 10 units
spin 12 12 units
spin 13 14 units
spin 14 17 units
Comeback: Returning to the Targeted Double Street
spin 1 = 21 units
spin 2 = 25 units
spin 3 = 30 units
spin 4 = 36 units
Comeback: Focusing on a Single Street
spin 1 = 20 units
spin 2 = 22 units
spin 3 = 24 units
spin 4 = 26 units
spin 5 = 28 units
spin 6 = 31 units
spin 7 = 34 units
spin 8 = 37 units