WAGERING & CANCELATION PLANS
All efforts to recover losses should be CONSERVATIVE. Otherwise you will frequently and quickly magnify your debt. The ideal betting plan bets small when losing and larger when winning. To put it another way, the ideal wagering plan puts more on the winners than it does on the losers. This is not easy to accomplish with rules and even harder to accomplish without rules.
It is up to YOU to stop guessing and dreaming and make a thorough study of selection criteria and wagering plans. Snap decisions and hunches will also be improved if a player has a background of research, study and experience.
Roulette LIVE casinos never worry when they see a player using the old “double the bet to get even” tactic. They also smile indulgently when any kind of steep progression player tries to beat the game simply by throwing money at it. Having steep pockets helps, but a big bankroll alone has never guaranteed success at any game.
Most players try progressions that are too steep for their reserve capital because they never imagined things could go so badly. These players are busted out with table limits coming into play.
Players with large bankrolls often miscalculate how long a losing streak can last and run into the table limits which kills any chance of their betting plan to make a recovery.
We won’t waste time with pages and pages of illustrations. Just know they DON'T WORK.
There are many roulette systems that are based on betting progressions - double up after a loss, increase by one unit after a win, etc. Math tells us, however, that no betting progression can overcome a game in which you do not have some kind of advantage.
Most progression based systems will yield a small win a high percentage of the time, but eventually produce (at least) one catastrophic loss that eclipses the sum total of all winnings. Let’s look at the typical example.
This spend-and-recoup strategy employs a betting system called the Blundell Progression. The goal of the system is to come out one betting unit ahead per session. It works as follows.
Let’s assume a $5 unit. Begin by betting one unit, and continue to bet one unit until you either achieve a one-unit profit or lose 10 units.
If you lose, double up your units to two and then do the same. Play until you recover your losses or until you lose another 10 units. Then you keep on doing this over and over until you either get the unit or lose a mighty big loss.
Anyone who would try such a system would have a success rate of maybe 95 percent of the time, but then while they don't realize, they will have a 5 percent failure rate, which will bring in horrible losses.
One such popular plan is known as the “D’ Lambert System,” just one of the many Cancellation Plans. It starts out with a small string of numbers: 1-2-3 or 1-1-1… the player starts betting by betting the sums of the two end numbers, if he loses, then he adds what he lost to the end. So if a person bets 2 units (1 + 1) then he loses, then the string would look like so: 1-1-1-2 (added the two) now the player bets again the sum of the first and last numbers which would be three and continues this pattern. When a player wins though, they cross out the two numbers they added. For example, if the person won on the next bet (3 units) then he would cross out the 1 and 2 making the new string 1-1.
People playing a Cancellation Plan for the first time think they have made the discovery of the century. They do nothing but make money. Then along comes a bad period where they fail to get that 33 percent of winners and then the bet amount goes through the roof. This could happen the first time you sit down at the table.
The Cancellation Plan has some merit however, and it can be improved upon a bit by “borrowing” or spreading the losses into additional columns. In a sense, the player who takes a big loss and breaks it up into separate parts in an effort to get back to base is taking a more CONSERVATIVE approach which he should have been using in the first place.
The Cancellation plan thus has about a 1/3rd increase ratio which is a bit too steep and dangerous. There are many great wagering scales you can buy or invent yourself. A very popular one goes 1,3,5,8 etc… added each of the previous two numbers. If a winner does not complete the recovery while using this, then fall back one step after a winner. Two winners in a row will mean a winning session. This is also too steep and dangerous.
One “gentleman” in particular made a small fortune charging a large fee for the wagering plan just described. He would even go to the casino with the purchaser to “prove” the plan really worked. His chances of hitting a losing session… about 1 in 10. So he would collect money 9 of 10 times and just shrug of the losers.
There are many more gradual wagering scales that are an improvement over the steep ones. Gradual scales have faults too, however. Suppose a player just incremented his bets by one, his first step from 1 to 2 is alone 100 percent increase, then as he goes from 2 to 3 it slowly decreases.
Research shows that an even money game can get 30 or 40 more units or more behind and, if a player hasn’t pulled out with a profit, his bets are not only getting big… but now the percent increase (from bet to bet) is very small. If the play then still fails to make a profit from a new starting point the progression has lost its punch and will not be enough to overcome the negative percentage of the game.
Another popular gambling system based on wagering scales is the “rise and fall” or “up-one-down-one.” The player bets one unit on the first play. If it loses he bets two on the next. Anytime he loses he goes up one unit, anytime he wins, he goes down one unit. It can get into trouble when the play works up its way to the “tall grass.” To play this sort of plan for a short session might seem ok but like most wagering plans you are living on borrowed time.
MORE SENSIBLE WAGERING PLANS
Series progressions can be slowed down to something like: 1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,3 etc… When playing this sort of plan, which is not too bad, there are two ways to go. One way is to drop back to the preceding level if the new higher level made a profit and gradually work your way back down to base level play.
The other way is “no retreat,” gradually putting down more and larger bets until a good period comes along and clears the debt. Some of the more successful players use a very, very gradual “no retreat” type plan.
When playing short odds such as even money, they progress by a series of 10 (10 bets at the one unit each level, then move up to ten bets at two-unit level).
As the bets gradually rise, a good stretch puts more money on winners than losers and they pull out with a profit. The more successful (and patient) gamblers who play odds longer than even money, may progress by a series of 20 or by 50. An improvement on the progression-without-retreat, a progression by gradual series, is this: Hold bets down to ONE unit no matter how long it takes until a winner comes along before moving up to the next higher series level.
Another popular form of wagering is called the “DUE COLUMN.” In all types of wagering, the player should always keep in mind his “debt.” Whenever your debt is recovered and a small gain is accomplished, you can return to base and start all over again.
We now refer to the debt as the amount “due.” Each losing bet plus a unit of desired profit is added to the debt to increase the amount due. You may be able to handle the due column figure in your head without using pencil and paper.
If you are playing “multiple due columns” you will probably need a score card. (Multiple due is where you are rotating the action into more than one column or playing different propositions).
The dangerous due columns are those that divide the FULL ODDS into the due. For example, if you had debt of 10 and bet 10 on an even money shot, a win would get you out but you would be playing 100 percent rate increase (same as doubling).
In many casino games, you can take even money selections and turn them into 3 to 1 shots by playing parlays. (One becomes two let it ride, two becomes 4). These players then divide their due by 1/3rd and any winning parlay gets them out of debt. A due column that averages 3 to 1 odds will be progressing by 33 percent, still too dangerous and too steep as research proves.
On 35 to 1 shots on straight up numbers, a due column player could divide by 1/35th of the debt and thus increase by a mere 3 percent. This plan isn’t bad if you have a good number selection process similar to the recommended cycle plays on straight-up numbers as described earlier.
If you do NOT have good selections and you are depending strictly on the wagering plan, you can not only fail to make enough profit, but you can encounter slumps than run into the hundreds. This will push a bet up to the table limit and will take up a lot of capital.