Cautious Martingale

We all know by now that Martingale is a risky method, that you invest a large amount in order to gain only 1 unit profit, as you keep doubling your bet if you haven't hit. However, if we use Martingale cautiously and if we know that our even money area will hit within 3 or 4 spins, we could use a 4 or 5 step Martingale to achieve our goal. Most people bet on only one area of their preference, say on either Red or Black. By using Martingale, they hope to hit a Red or a Black within 5-6 spins. Or some individuals wait for a streak of Red or Black before they apply Martingale on the opposite colour, assuming that it is "due". We should all know by now, that this the gambler's fallacy and in Roulette nothing is due. The result of the next spin does not depend on the previous one. I have seen many times, 9-10 Reds or Blacks lining up in a row with no guarantee that the next spin will be the opposite colour. That's where Martingale fails the most. As you keep betting by doubling up your betting amount, you either exceed the table's limit or you run out of money before you get your unit profit.

If we observe patterns of Blacks and Reds on the scoreboard, we will see that they either show up in a choppy way, that is they alternate frequently, either like a zig zag or every other spin, or they show up in a streaky manner, that is with long sequences of Reds or Blacks. Observing those results a bit further, we can also see, that a table switches from being choppy to streaky and vice versa every now and then. Taking all that into account, I came to the conclusion that it may be worth using a 5 step Martingale not on a specific colour but on a specific pattern of behaviour. And this pattern happens to be a repeating colour. In other words, you would be betting on the colour that just came up.

Now, what are the advantages of following a specific colour? Well, first of all, if the table behaves with a streaky fashion, you win every single bet, regardless of if the streak is on Black or Red, since you are betting on the same colour that just came up. So a sequence of 10 successive Blacks or Reds will result in 9 wins. If the table is slightly choppy, that is not exactly a zig zag, then you will win either every other spin, or once every third spin, or once every fourth spin. This way a 5 step Martingale of a sequence 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 will yield excellent results.

I was using a $50 unit value. Therefore my 5 step Martigale became: $50, $100, $200, $400, $800. This required a bankroll of $1550. Every win resulted in a $50 profit. To play it safe, I observed scoreboards of the tables where Red and Black were coming up in a choppy manner, with an exact zig zag, that is one Red, one Black, one Red, and one Black. Once either Red or Black repeated, that was the mark of the end of the choppiness and I attacked with my repeat colour strategy. You could win 10 to 20 sessions until Red and Black starts zig zagging again. Once you have won your say 10 sessions, you don't wait until the table becomes choppy again. You look for a new opportunity at a different table. It's good to sit at a place where you can view multiple scoreboards and go for the one that just has ended the Red and Black zig zag.

We will count the number of non-repeating colours. When the colour finally repeats and if this number is less or equal than 5 then we win the session and we profit $50:

24 B

23 R (bet on Black, we lose, count 1)

1 R (bet on Red, we win, count = 2, we cash $50)

13 B (bet on Black, we lose, count = 1)

35 B (bet on Black, we win, count = 2, we cash another $50)

0 G (bet on Black, we lose, count = 1)

13 B (bet on Black ,we win, count = 2, we cash another $50)

12 R loss count 1

29 B loss count 2

33 B win count 3 (cash $50)

14 R loss count 1

2 B loss count 2

33 B win count 3 (cash $50) (not bad, $250 in 12 spins.)

15 B win again $50

30 R lose count 1

31 B lose count 2

5 R lose count 3

23 R win count 4 (cash $50, count is still less than 5)

31 B lose count 1

21 R lose count 2

12 R win count 3 (cash $50, so far profit $350)

12 R win again count 1 cash $50

8 B

29 B cash $50

36 R

18 R cash $50

0

12 R cash $50

5 R cash $50

9 R cash $50

go home, enough cashing for today, have a dinner on me.

Go to the web site and see for yourselves. At one stage, there are 8 repeating Reds, you make a profit of $350 right there.

At another stage, there is a zig zag of 6 spins, where you lose your 5 step Martingale session. This will reduce your profits by $1550. But this happens only when we get too greedy and we don't stop after cashing 10 times the $50 unit profit and we don't wait for this zig zag to occur without getting caught. I think catching a streak of 10 units at $50 profiting $500 is quite sufficient for 1 hour's play. I caught 4 opportunities today in Casino de Montreal, cashed $2000 and left happily. If I would catch a 6 spin zig zag on my way, I would still be ahead by $450, where I would have also left happily. As long as you quit when you are ahead, that's what counts.

Now, this roulette stategy works pretty well, but it is not fail proof. If Dale's fifth step of Martingale $800 bet was a loss, then he would have been down by $1,550. And this is bound to happen sooner or later, if you play this strategy on the long run, unless you are there for a hit and run, bet 5 times, cash $250 and go home happily.