A Simple Roulette Strategy by Izak
A couple of days ago, I was going down the stairs in a metro station to take the metro to work. I had returned my leased car and my new car was going to be ready only the day after, so I had to use the metro that day. While going down the stairs I heard the noise of a metro approaching. Constantly thinking odds, I thought there would be a 50% probability that the metro was coming from south to north and 50% that it would come from north to south, as there were only two directions. With this in mind I started going down the stairs a bit faster. As I approached the platforms, I saw that there were a lot more people standing for the south direction. This led me to believe that there was a metro that went north not long ago and that the next coming one would be for going south. The chances of the next metro going north was still 50%, but the fact that there were more people for the south direction, added another factor to those odds and increased the likelihood that the next metro would be for the south direction.
Comparing this to Roulette, we all know that the probability of the next spin being either Red or Black is nearly 50%, but there are other factors that increase the likelihood of its being Red or Black and let's see what those factors can be: Some of us Roulette enthusiasts like to play long hours of Roulette spins. Some of us are satisfied with quick hits and runs. In Roulette you will probably accomplish your goal on a short amount of play rather than extended hours of play.
If your goal is to make a decent profit on a daily basis, you may want to consider betting with high units rather than starting with the table minimum. Starting with a minimum bet is usually the beginning of a progression or some kind of a parlay system. Betting straight with the table's maximum is where you are aiming for a high profit in a short amount of time.
Let's say that this maximum on the outside bets is $1000. Let's also say that you will be happy if you could make a profit of $1000 per day or per session. This means that we are fishing for only 1-unit profit, our unit being $1000 worth.
Now, what kind of system or method will ensure 1-unit profit without risking say more than 4 units. If you are betting on Red or Black, the probability of the next bet being either Red or Black is nearly 50%. If the previous decision was a Red, the probability of the next bet being also a Red is also 50%. That means that there is a nearly 50% chance that the color will either repeat or alternate.
Let's now examine the other factors
If we look at a series of numbers and their colors, on a choppy state of the table, the colors will alternate more than they will repeat. And on a streaky state of the table, the colors will repeat more than they will alternate. Or we can also say, that on a choppy state, within 10 bets, the color will change more than 5 times. And on a streaky state, the color will repeat more than 5 times. And this can happen at any stage during those 10 bets.
Once you detect that a table is streaky and you join while betting on following the previous decision, if you place 10 bets with flat 1 unit at every bet, there is a great chance you will be up by at least 1 unit during those 10 bets, without going less than -4 units, since there will be more repeating colors than alternating ones.
The same way, if you see that a table is choppy and you join while betting on the opposite of the previous decision, you will probably be ahead by at least 1 unit during the next 10 bets without going lower than -4 units, since there will be more alternating colors than repeating ones.
This is exactly the same way we can assume that if there are many more people standing to go south on the metro, there will be at least one more metro going south during the next few ones than going north.
It all boils down to the ability to detect if a table is choppy or streaky. This is quite easy to see with Reds and Blacks even over a distance.
Another approach would be to go for a repeat color once you identify that the choppiness has stopped, or go for the opposite decision once the streak has ended. As you may have noticed by now, a table goes from a choppy to a streaky state and vice versa every now and then. What you could do is to count and register the number of times a color has repeated and alternated under two columns on a writing pad. Once the gap between the repeating and the alternating color starts expanding, it's time to go towards the opposite trend, as according to the law of averages, Reds and Blacks should come up an equal amount of times, or at least the difference should not be too great over a long run.
Here is an illustration. You come to a roulette table and start writing down the number of repeats and changes for say 20 spins:
Spin Red/Black Repeat Change Gap
2 R 1 1
3 B 1 0
4 B 2 1
5 B 3 2
6 R 2 1
7 R 4 2
8 R 5 3
9 R 6 4
10 B 3 3
11 R 4 2
12 B 5 1
13 B 7 2
14 B 8 3
15 R 6 2
16 R 9 3
17 R 10 4
18 B 7 3
19 B 11 4
20 B 12 5
Every time the color repeats you increment the repeat count and every time the color changes you increment the change count and you record the gap between those two numbers.
When the gap reaches 5 or more, you can tell that the table is in a certain streak or chop trend.
In the example above the gap is 5 favoring a streak trend, which is about to change to a chop trend.
This is when I would bet the next 10 bets with 1 unit every time on a change color, that is, on the opposite of the previous decision. And there probably will be more changing colors than repeating ones giving you the 1-unit profit that you were looking for.
If you don't dare playing with $1000 unit, try it with $10. The worst you can lose is $40. If it works well for you, try it with $100 units. Upgrade as you gain trust and confidence.
By the way, this system is good for Baccarat as well, as Mike McGuire, the Baccarat guru states: "The shoe streaks 50% of the time and chops 50% of the time". With the above method, while noting down the Player and Banker bets, you can record the streaks and the chops, calculate their difference and go for the opposite trend.
That's all for this week. Your feedback is welcome.